Dual-Use and Emerging Space Technologies: Drivers of Militarization and the Governance Deficit

Abstract

The rapid diffusion of space technologies, both established dual-use systems (e.g., GNSS, Earth observation, and launch vehicles) and emerging technologies (e.g., autonomous on-orbit servicing, robotic satellites, and AI-enabled space systems), is reshaping strategic competition in outer space and exposing fundamental weaknesses in extant governance regimes. This paper investigates how the technical affordances of dual-use and emerging space technologies facilitate militarization, and why existing legal and normative instruments are ill-equipped to prevent their progressive weaponization. The analysis identifies three mechanisms linking technology to militarization: functional convergence (civilian systems repurposed for military ends), capability diffusion (commercial innovations lowering thresholds for military use), and operational opacity (limited transparency and verification enabling strategic ambiguity). It further maps governance gaps, exploring the arenas for cooperative space governance. The study adapts methodological foundations from secondary sources and theoretical ground from neorealism, neoliberalism, and security studies.