Impact of Climate Change on Monsoonal Variability in Tamil Nadu and Kerala: A Case Study of Floods and Landslides

Abstract

Climate change has significantly impacted monsoonal variability in the states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala, leading to increased vulnerability to extreme weather events. This study investigates the effects of climate change on monsoon patterns, precipitation, and the occurrence of floods and landslides in these regions. The analysis of historical data and recent case studies, including the Chennai floods of 2015 and 2023 and the Wayanad landslides of 2024, reveals the complex interplay between climate change, anthropogenic factors, and regional vulnerabilities. Tamil Nadu, primarily dependent on the northeast monsoon, has experienced erratic rainfall patterns, with short-duration, high-intensity storms resulting in urban flooding. The 2015 Chennai floods exemplify the consequences of extreme rainfall combined with inadequate urban planning and drainage systems. Similarly, the 2023 floods triggered by Cyclone Michaung demonstrate the increasing intensity of tropical cyclones owing to rising sea surface temperatures. Kerala, relying on the southwest monsoon, has faced an increased frequency of rainfall-induced landslides, as evident in the 2024 Wayanad disaster. Anthropogenic activities, such as deforestation, unregulated urbanisation, and land-use changes, have exacerbated the impacts of extreme weather events in both states. The study emphasises the urgent need for climate-resilient infrastructure, improved early warning systems, and sustainable land-use policies to mitigate future risks. Enhancing regional climate research and integrating climate adaptation strategies into development plans are crucial for safeguarding the population and infrastructure of Tamil Nadu and Kerala against the escalating challenges posed by climate change.